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Ontario Electricity System Load Predictor

BluWave-ai's load predictor has been scaled for system-wide operation

SOLUTION FOR

BluWave-ai has built a suite of predictors for energy optimization including: load, wind, solar generation, energy price, peak demand which are deployed worldwide for its customers using BluWave-ai SaaS energy optimization products.

For electricity system load forecasting and dispatch, BluWave-ai’s predictor builds on 5 years of AI platform optimization, operating worldwide delivering over 500 000 real-time AI energy dispatches as of 2022. It has been trained on years of historical system demand data along with weather and other data feeds, providing superior forecast accuracy that will adapt in real-time to system changes to provide continued accuracy.

For the Ontario system, the load predictor has been specifically tuned and trained on publicly available system data, other data and weather feeds from all over the province to accurately predict the system load for the province of Ontario, Canada.

A real-time functionally limited preview of the Ontario load predictor is available below. This is a limited preview to show the forecasted day ahead and recent actual province-wide load up to a week ago. More options and features are available to subscribers with BluWave-ai Atlas.

 

Click Here for a LIVE Preview of Ontario System Load Forecast

Large electricity consumers including: EV fleet operators, commercial, industrial and institutional large consumers can use the service to accurately predict upcoming electricity system demand peaks. This allows them to reduce their demand at the right time to reduce the demand on the system and avoid higher energy costs during these periods, including coincident peaks that set Global Adjustment charges in Ontario, and similar peak demand charges in other system markets.

Ontario Load Predictor for Electricity Consumers

*As an example of the potential energy capacity that can be used in the system: Canada has a target  to have 1.4M EVs on the road in 2026, Ontario represents about 40% of this, or 560 000 EVs. With an average battery capacity of 50kWh per vehicle this would total 28GWh of storage distributed in the system, which consumers will be charging and using to drive their vehicles. A typical EV will use about 4MWh per year, or 11kWh per day. Assuming that each day, over the network as a whole, the aggregation of all EVs with intelligent managed charging provides 1kW per EV for load shifting to avoid peaks, then by 2026, EVs in a system the size of Ontario provide the equivalent of 560MW capacity for peak demand shifting. This will allow for utilities to incentivize consumers to move charging to when it is best for the overall grid given the scope of accuracy of the System Load predictor is often in the range of 1-3% MAPE on a day ahead basis depending on variability of unplanned economic activity.. The BluWave-ai EV Everywhere product   will allow utilities to react to system wide load inaccuracies to move charging to times that are better for the grid

Load Predictor for Electricity System Operators

By accurately forecasting the system demand for electricity, system operators and distribution utilities can better manage the scheduling and dispatch of energy storage, fossil fuel power plants and other dispatchable generation taking into account renewable energy generation to match the demand and minimize the use of fossil fuel sources;  and for signaling upcoming system peaks for large consumers to reduce their demand through demand response or pricing signals depending on the market structure.

EV Everywhere

As the transformation and electrification of the transport sector is accelerating and is making a major impact over the next few years (see below): It represents an increasing demand on electricity system networks to  supply energy to charge EVs, but also provides a large potential dispatchable distributed energy storage that can be managed with BluWave-ai EV Everywhere  to mitigate peak demand and reduce the need and extent of capital upgrades to meet the increased energy demands. System operators  and distribution companies using BluWave-ai’s load prediction can extend the service with an EV Everywhere program at the system-wide scale to coordinate widespread behind-the-meter  EV charging and energy storage for the grid.

This can be achieved by reducing dispatchable loads, modulating or shifting EV charging and discharging energy from local energy storage.. Subscriptions are available with additional capabilities for users. Subscription to service with Atlas will provide additional features:

  • Intraday forecasts on demand covering several hours ahead from the time the dispatch is requested all the way to midnight of the same day
  • Access to  historical data and ability to download data/history
  • Downloadable reports showing forecast, actual and Mean Absolute Error (MAE)
  • Option to integrate with other services such as to provide notification of upcoming  Ontario ICI/GA  coincident peak events for industrial and large commercial consumers and BluWave-ai GA predictor service

To subscribe to the service, contact [email protected]

Ontario's Electricity System

BluSight Program

If you are an electricity system operator or a government agency with oversight of your electricity system  and would like to test the BluWave-ai load predictor for your system and also simulate the impact of large EV penetration and incentivization in your grid, the company is offering the first 3 qualified system operators one month of free:

  • Data cleaning, preprocessing, and AI model training

  • AI model demonstration for your system operation

To request participation in this program, please contact us: [email protected]

Ontario map outline https://freevectormaps.com/canada/ontario/CA-ON-EPS-01-0001